By Luiz Gerbelli

SAO PAULO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Michel Temer is increasingly likely to depend on lower interest rates and an unpopular agenda of legislative reforms to revive a moribund economy, analysts said, as a deep recession risks entering a third year.

Temer's best chances to spark growth lie in quickly pushing through Congress an unpopular pension reform unveiled this month. If his program wins approval, that would help the central bank cut interest rates at a faster pace, according to analysts.

However, there is growing skepticism about Temer's ability to give a significant boost to the economy and his popularity by the end of his mandate in 2018. Add to that the anxiety that Brazil's political turbulence, stoked by a sweeping political corruption probe, will not abate.

The current Brazilian president has lost four ministers due to corruption allegations. That along with the prolonged economic recession have threatened his political survival and given rise to calls for him to step down and allow new elections.

"The economic and political crises have been feeding each other. The government has not been able to break that cycle," said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at the Insper institute.

Analysts see a narrowing window of opportunity for Temer.

The campaign for the 2018 presidential election is likely to interfere with political strategies in Congress in the second half of next year, analysts said, leaving little time for any rate cuts to have an effect over the economy, given its usual lag.

Each 0.25 percentage point cut in the benchmark interest rate, currently at 13.75 percent, contributes to economic growth by 0.1 percentage point, according to Alessandra Ribeiro, an economist with Tendências Consultoria.

And political risk may offset that effect, she said, by raising lending spreads by banks.

For nine straight weeks, Agen Bola; h3n303.net, economists in a central bank poll have cut their forecasts for economic growth next year to 0.58 percent. Brazil's gross domestic product is expected to shrink by more than 3 percent for a second year in 2016.

The Finance Ministry and the central bank have recently announced a series of measures to reduce credit costs and cut bureaucracy. But the government has shied away from offering subsidies or raising spending as it struggles with a record budget deficit.

"The government's honeymoon with markets and analysts is practically over," said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "2017 will be a complicated year and it is hard to imagine the economy moving out of where it is now." (Writing by Silvio Cascione; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)
번호 제목 글쓴이 날짜 조회 수
282954 Be Aware Of Accidental Injury Fundamentals: You Will Never Know When You'll Need To Have Them RandolphVarney2556 2018.11.09 16
282953 Tips On How To Get Poker JoeyGetz4235161 2018.11.09 2
282952 Online Activity Betting - A Manual To Online Activity Betting AnhWeisz4319066112799 2018.11.09 2
282951 Auf Wache Mit Der Kamelspinne HassanCarls58501 2018.11.09 0
282950 Know The Accidental Injury Fundamentals: You Never Know When You'll Require Them CruzC7537866535824853 2018.11.09 9
282949 If you loved this sho... MollieBlair50796 2018.11.09 2
282948 Is Scotty Mcreery Dating SolE578908204330 2018.11.09 0
282947 What To Do When You're Locked Out Of Your Home Or Car Or Truck LeilaKirkcaldie4048 2018.11.09 2
282946 GSA SER - Radiantly Slim Samara57V5195086658 2018.11.09 0
282945 Free Dating Web Sites – Easy Access To Finding Your Dream Lover AndresSifuentes95 2018.11.09 3
282944 Know The Injury Fundamentals: One Never Knows When You'll Need To Have Them BlakeGeorge9888 2018.11.09 3
282943 If you liked this rep... DarbyStout371450 2018.11.09 2
282942 영화 말타의 매 다시보기 살나인 2018.11.09 0
282941 Benefits Of Salamba Sirasana 22543 Taj72474364476326315 2018.11.09 5
282940 Sports Briefs: The Expatriate Act Esther99980913507 2018.11.09 0
» Brazil's Temer Boxed In By Recession, Political Crisis - Analysts WillardGarica59 2018.11.09 0
282938 If you cherished this... TodAmerson79073 2018.11.09 2
282937 Are Aware Of The Injury Fundamentals: Who Knows When You'll Need To Have Them ShermanFetty97074 2018.11.09 8
282936 Plan Cul Lyon FredaCamfield97 2018.11.09 0
282935 Learn And Understand An Simple Way To Make Cash On-Line IrmaHutt42262189547 2018.11.09 3